Monday, April 21, 2008
When Bad Things Happen To Nice Starting Hands
OJ Simpson's 405 Freeway Chase, William Jefferson's Monica Affair and Ace Jack-The road less traveled-the psycho path!
Ah the poker life! the older I get, the better my past gets...
There's Big Slick, AK, Big Chick AQ, Then there's Ace Jack, Napoleon, who suffers from the "Short Man's Complex"
I have a nickname for Ace Jack, AJ--- Jack Ass. because I donk off all my money with it, and feel like one.
Ace Jack is also known as Slick Willy-The Bill Clinton. I don't know why, ask Monica or Hillary, oh that's right a Head of State supposed to have a head, never mind...
DONK! Ace Jack is my Monica, and like Bill Clinton, I too admit to having an "inappropriate relationship" with Ace Jack! It keeps screwing me out of money. Not anymore, now that I have the secret-- Not, the movie-The Secret- that is about the law of attraction and results.
The secret of poker is not about results, it's about making good decisions. The way to get better is to think about process not results—focus on better decision making and ignoring short term results.
nb note to self:Oh I get it---Denial, it's not just a river in Vegas-It's not about winning, it's about excelling.
The Neuroeconomics of Real-Time Risk verses Imagined
Car Accidents and high-speed chases can reak havoc on the freeway. I remember LA’s concrete jungle, the 405, the four-oh-five, right by LAX and Wilshire Blvd . It was June 17, 1994, Friday, in Los Angeles, the day it became the world’s largest parking lot.
My Ford Mustang Convertible was all revved up, top down, with nowhere to go. It turned out to be a high-speed chase- the OJ Simpson -Al Cowlings White Bronco thing, an undirected, unpredicted Black Swan event.
The 3 second rule gets usurped by L.A.'s 45 minute One.
You have heard about the three second rule, regarding food that hits the ground, you have three seconds to eat it before it becomes contaminated. Unless of course you are in my condo-I eat my meals over the sink and have the three-hour-bachelor-slob rule! (100 man points!)
People began talking "Remember the plus 45 minutes rule". I started driving extra early for the next few week. I was worried about traffic jams, and allowed myself extra time.
This "rule" has continued throughout my years as a driver in the badlands of Southern California, as "The Pursuit of Happiness" LA TV media coverage of high-speed chases turns zeros into heros, and the freeways into abortions. And this opinion--- the 45 minute rule-- wasn't even mine! but heard/herd mentality
Worried if a freeway chase will be covered by the media, a code 10-22, I always looked up in the sky to see and hear a Newscoptor as a predictor. It's been my dipstick for determining if this has now become a newsworthy event. It might be an irrelevant reference point, but this, along with the "45" rule is where I have stood on driving in LA.
This crucial concept in behavioral finance is a bias known as "conservatism," which is the natural reluctance to change an opinion, even when confronted with data that suggest you should. They still have the chases . They tend to be like mini- instant- temporary reality shows, and don't go over the top, like the Simpson White Bronco media circus variety.
All this "behavior" of being fooled by randomness, even though the roads weren’t any more or less dangerous, not to mention how rare a large-impact type OJ event occurs, but make no mistake about it, they do occur---the law of large numbers says someone is going to win the lottery, and, some celebrity is going to try to outrun the highway patrol.
Last year, on my way to the Bicycle Casino, however, I threw caution to the wind, as I beat rush hour traffic, and made it from Santa Monica to Bell Gardens in a record 35 minutes time,without the 45 minute cushion ---- I was back to my same pedal-to-the-metal-driving habits, and forgot about the OJ Bronco rule. I finally broke free of its impact on my drive time.
The concept, know as anchoring in behavioral finance--- the tendency to attach or "anchor" our thoughts to a reference point (that OJ Bronco Chase) - even though it may have no logical relevance to the decision at hand---is how I have been treating AJ for years. I always seem to have the best of it pre flop, and some donkey calls and sucks out.
Where Attention Goes, Chips Flow
My mental accounting anchor of AJ=Bad Beat. Under mental accounting, I live a personal "storyline " concerning my history with each an every AJ I have ever played , not unlike having a personal Monica relationship with each AJ because I cannot get it through my thick skull that the loses-they are imaginary. It is not about winning or losing. It is about exceling.
A behavioral game theory approach realizes that anyone can get lucky 100% of the time, and, more than that, realize that, good play will have bad beats.
Behavioral Game theory is the more ‘down-to-earth’ approach dealing with one case at a time, especially when Lift Ticket plays with ATC, any two cards- if they don’t know what they’re doing how can you!
The hand that has the highest potential must be a hand that gets played in different ways and in different situations. It's going to be somewhere between the hands that are rarely folded, and the hands that are rarely played. Ace Jack Heads Up is almost never folded before the flop, so we know AJ cannot be the most profitable hand. So keep that in perspective.
Time without attention is worthless, so value attention over time. Therefore: Stop Waiting For “Better Spots” To Get Your Money In! Pick a favorite hand--commit your attention to it and play it strong.
If you don’t have attention, you don’t have time, and if you don't have time-er, well time is money. Can't play poker without money.
Bill Clinton Monica Lewinsky Hillary Clinton behavioral finance Neuroeconomics OJ Freeway chase OJ Simpson Ace Jack How to play Ace Jack poker starting hands anchoring black swan