Friday, July 27, 2018

Bad Beats are Overhead;Chips, The Cost of Doing Business As Usual


Are You Experienced?
Probability and People=Poker P+P=P
Limit is about value betting and NLH is about trapping.You spell limit poker t.i.m.e. You can't spell anything in NLH! You gotta do the math---the heavy lifting of pot odds, implied odds, counting your outs.



In No Limit Holdem, things don't even out with time, they even out with the number of hands you play. Sometimes nothing can be a good hand. See my Post on Zero Gravity Thinking.


Holdem is a game of high cards, and kickers, In Limit Holdem, the number of players increases, so big cards must be played most of the time. NLH is like chess; Limit, like checkers: so don't play it like cheese! Find the holes and leaks in your limit game, and plug them up.



Hand selection is very important since almost all the time you are going to a showdown---the one with the best hand usually wins; and bluffing is a rather hard thing to pull off, since it only costs one small bet for Deputy Barney Fife to "keep you honest". Nevertheless,You can bet or raise with ATC, any two cards, but your call MUST have a positive matamatical expectation. Calling for value must outweigh the risks you are taking.


INS and OUTS


For the beginner, everything is even money, when you don't know any better. Replacing that with true odds is the goal. There is one goal and many pathways. There is the psycho path way, playing like a Kramer maniac.---the push and pray NLH way, hoping to hit the flop big. There is the rocky road, playing a tight-is-right, the Jerry game of counting your outs---the number of unseen cards that will give you the best hand---the NUTS!


There is wise and there is otherwise. Generally speaking if the FLOP gives you 10 or more outs---go all the way to the river, regardless of the number of opponents in the pot.

If your draws have less than 9 outs 2 handed, that will yield you a negative result more often than not.

A Multi-handed raised pot with six or more outs =profit.


LET THERE BE FLOP- Getting in touch with your inner George Costanza


If a guy has 20k behind him, and you are first to act and bet 6K. He is really betting 20K if he calls your 6K.(the implied turn and river bets) You bet 6K. he bets 20K That is the threat of NLH, the all-in threat. PUT THE COMMITMENT ON HIM.



The Poker Free Lunch



I can read minds. I know what players are thinking after they miss the flop--"Don't bet" Don't bet" They want a free card. I know both sides because I am both sides.



What is deeply personal in poker is universal. If I am capable of thinking it, so are my opponents. That's feeling the fear and doing it anyway---like The Opposite Episode in Seinfeld. "If I raise everyone will think I have an ACE. So you get 72 and raise with squadush. After all, you don't get a second chance to make a FALSE impression. You may win the pot outright, or take it away on the turn if their hand doesn't improve.


Your attitude will determine your altitude in NLH.


We are born broke, and we die broke, everything in the middle is fluctuation.
"Getting broke" and "Going Broke" are two different things. Getting broke is when you place burns down and you become houseless, you, the franchise can still go out and buy or build another house. Going broke is setting yourself on fire---you are homeless, a lifestyle of disenfranchisement. Have an attitude of gratitude because pokewr is 100% skil and 100% luck



SHIFT Happens

Knowledge isn't power---applied knowledge is. Luck isn't power either, but applied luck is the most powerful element in NLH: here's what I mean; Focus on decisions not consequences. Luck has consequences. Focus on decisions, not luck. What you think of me is none of my business, and what luck thinks of me at any particular time, is none of my business. Luck Positive (Winning) and Luck Negative (gad beats) are OVERHEAD; Chips, the cost of doing business!


Think about good decisions, not results. It's about the process not pots won---the chips will come. Do what you love and the money will follow--have a love affair with making sound decisions based on partial information. It is, after all, about excelling, not winning or losing a particular hand.

It is a poor workman who blames his tools--I don't have a big enough bankroll--A BR is your toolbox. Don't sell your tools. Poker happens in the mind--but it is played with money. I got $1,000 bucks worth of chips and $100,000 worth of courage.



Folding-the invisable way to win.


The best way to win more is to fold more! Hand selection is really something to consider; so is position. Playing too many starting hands is the How Not to Do It way..When it is raised in front of you-Your mantra should be "I'm looking for a way to fold this AJ offsuit.

LOOSE playing---you are looking for reasons to call; TIGHT, to fold---choose your posion.

CHIPS, they comes from weakness: exploit opponent weakness to play ATC, any two cards, who come here to gamble mentality.


CP, calling pattern, BP, betting patterns. Pay attention to these hints. Sit to the LEFT of loose players. When you have a monster let lefty bet out. Players who just sit down are easier to bluff and less likely to play weak hands.